Investir en bourse

Date of analysis: 28/07/2017 Price: CAD 1,10$ (USD 0,88$) Nb of shares: 108519936 (but special situation here !) Market cap: 119M Redknee - a special situation Redknee is a Canadian software company founded in 1999 (mainly involved in billing for Telecom companies) and was still managed by its founder Lucas Skoczvowski (till beginning of 2017) who wanted to grow its company via two acquisitions that did not produce the expected results (declining revenues, declining margins, losses,...) due to poor execution (Nokia Siemens Network in 2013 and Orga systems in 1995). The consequence is that the company breached covenants. On 10th August 2016, ESX Capital announced that it has acquired 12 500 00 common shares (11,55% of the company) at a cost between CAD $1,5 and CAD $1,7. The interesting thing is that ESX Capital is a specialized company in turnaround in the software environment. In December 2016, the company received an offer from ESX Capital, better than a previou...

Date de l'analyse:28/06/2017 Cours: 83,01 EUR Nb d'actions: 4280871 Market cap: 355M Net debt: 205M EV: 508M Documents de travail: Rapport de l'expert indépendant sur l'OPRA 2016; Rapport annuel 2016 https://www.devenir-rentier.fr/t14694 The story line Gaumont a récemment décidé de vendre sa participation de 34% dans les Cinémas Gaumont Pathé pour 380M d'euros.  Les conséquences de la vente de cette participation sont les suivantes: Le business de Gaumont sera uniquement centré sur la production de films et séries, et la gestion du catalogue; Avant cette vente, la dette nette de Gaumont est d'environ 205M et la société devrait donc passer en trésorerie nette; Cette participation apportait des revenus récurrents et stables, contrairement à la production de films et séries dont les revenus dépendent du succès des productions forcément aléatoire. Ce risque est compensé par une forte réduction de la dette; Gaumont a lancé une OP...

Suite au rapport semestriel S1 2016/2017, et à mon précédent article sur Manutan , voici les nouvelles données: CA en hausse de 5,1% (7,1% en change constant). Les marges sont en forte hausse avec une marge operationnelle courante à 6,8% et une marge nette à 5,2% positivement impactée par des événéments non récurrables dont le montant n'est pas précisé. Je retiendrai donc une marge nette de 5%. La hausse des marges et due à la hausse du CA et à la maitrise de la marge commerciale et des dépenses opérationnelles. La dette nette est de 18M. La book value est à 385M Avec un prix de l'action à 81,32 EUR au 07/06/2017, nous avons: Market cap: 619m EV: 601M En ajoutant 5% au CA de l'année 2015/2016, nous avons une estimation du CA 2016/2017 de 682 578 * 1.05 =  716 706 M Avec une marge opérationnelle de 6,8% nous avons 48,7M. Arbitrairement, on peut appliquer un multiple de 12 (business stable, en légère croissance) et retirer la dette nette de -18M pour obtenir une...

Date de l'analyse:14/05/2017 Cours: 48p Nb d'actions: 397 269 839 Market cap: 190 689 522 GBP Net debt: 9m GBP (-21M of net dept plus 30M due to business timing, see capital allocation section below) EV: 200M GBP Business The group is the 5th car dealer in UK. The market is fragmented and being consolidated. Vertu Motors is also participating in this consolidation by purchasing under performing  dealer and driving them back to normal profitability and eventually building a scaled franchised dealership. The company wants to grow cash flow by growing revenues, managing margins and working capital. Working capital is very important in this business as accounts payable and account receivable constitute an important part of the balance sheet. So far, the business has been growing through equity offering. However, the management indicates that they now want to use existing cash flow and debt to fund future acquisitions and capex. The table below show the planned ...

Following the analysis of Overstock , I got interested by Wayfair as Overstock's CEO keeps talking about Wayfair, expecially during the Q4 2016 conference call, highlighting their pretended non sustainable growth. This made me curious to compare both competitors and to follow Wayfair's evolution. Date of analysis: 06/05/2017 Share price: 48,85$ Number of shares: 50 338 973 of  class A (1 vote per share) and 35 617 581 of class B (10 votes per share) Market cap: 4 113 m$ Net debt: -348m$ (but this cash would be required for accounts payable, see below) EV: 3765m$ Interesting discussions are: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4051586-wayfair-see-80-percent-downside http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/w-wayfair/ Operations/Business Wayfair is an online retailer for home products with currently 8 millions products offered by 10 000 suppliers. 2016 revenues are 3,8b$ and  90% of revenues are in US, but they are trying t...

Date de l'analyse:27/03/2017 Cours: 9,45 $ Nb d'actions: 170 792 645 Preferred stocks D (7,375%): 1 815 000 shares at liquidation preference of 250 $ ( can be redeemed any time ), market value: 238,9 $ Preferred stocks E (6,625%): 690 000 shares at  liquidation preference of   250 $ ( as from 12 October 2017, may be redeemed ), market value: 231 $ Market cap: 1 613 990 495 $ Net debt: 4 950 000 000 $ (includes non consolidated debt) Net debt  + preferred = 4 950 000 000  + 626 250 000 = 5 576 250 000$ EV: 1 613 990 495 +  626 250 000 (total preferred )  + 4 900 000 000 = 7 140 240 495$ Sources for analysis: 10K 2016, presentation March 2017 and Q4 2016 conf call. For the rest of the analysis, I will consider the preferred stocks as debt. Business CBL &Associates properties is a REIT of class B malls in US. Class B malls usually refers to malls with sales below $500/sqf.  The company divides its properties into Tiers:...

Date de l'analyse:13/03/2017 Cours: 38.075 EUR Nb d'actions: 287 699 000 (plus 14 198 000 treasury shares that I don't include) Market cap: 10 954 139 000 EUR Net debt: 1 927 000 000 EUR EV: 12 881 139 000 EUR Business From the annual report 2016: " Wolters Kluwer provides essential information, software, and services to doctors, nurses, accountants, lawyers, and audit, compliance, and regulatory professionals. We enable our customers to provide worldclass service and maximize their potential." Having started the shift from the paper based information distribution to a software company a few years ago, they are successfully replacing and even outpacing the legacy paper based business with software. Digitial and services represent now 85% of the revenues of the portfolio. 77% of the revenues are recurring. They grow organically in the low single digit area, and they also grow by acquisition. The strategy consists of buying software comp...